Estimates of future emissions and removals depend in part on assumptions about changes in underlying human activities. For example, the demand for fossil fuels such as gasoline and coal is expected to increase greatly with the predicted growth of the U.S. and global economies.
The National Research Council concluded, in assessing current trends, that "emissions of some greenhouse gases are increasing, but others are decreasing. In some cases the decreases are a result of policy decisions, while in other cases the reasons for the decrease are not well understood" (NRC, 2001)
Many, but not all, human sources of greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise in the future. This growth may be reduced by ongoing efforts to increase the use of newer, cleaner technologies and other measures. Additionally, our everyday choices about such things as commuting, housing, electricity use and recycling can influence the amount of greenhouse gases being emitted.
The United States government prepares projections of emissions and removals of all greenhouse gases. The following links provide more detailed information on projections:
- Greenhouse Gas Projections, Chapter 5 of the U.S. Climate Action Report (PDF, 11 pp., 322 KB, About PDF): In Chapter 5 of the Climate Action Report, the U.S. forecasts future emission levels using information developed from models.
- International Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections
- Methane Projections
- Nitrous Oxide Projections
- Fluorinated Gases
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