Our Air, Our Water, Our Scientists?!

Scientists have been debating on whether or not; global warming has been increasing the intensity of hurricanes. Some agree that the rise in temperature of the oceans seas and their levels have been a major contribution when it comes to the outcome of a new hurricane. Others say that the intensities from global warming are so minute that it has relatively no effect, or at least that they can tell.

The 2007 hurricane season is beginning and the debate over the climate change in boosting hurricanes devastation is a debate with the scientists who research our waters, clouds, and are working to find out what exactly is going on with out weather.

Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado said the next logical question is, how have sea surface temperatures changed over the last 30 years or so, "and that's where the global warming aspects come in and that's where some of the dispute seems to lie."

He is convinced that global warming is a huge factor when it comes to the intensity of a hurricane.

However, Chris Landsea of the U.S. government's National Hurricane Center in Miami considers global warming to be a minor influence when it comes to hurricanes intensity. Instead he compared it to long-term climate cycles that can last for decades.

When it comes to the relationship between hurricane strength and global warming, "the important question is not, is there an impact, but how much of an impact," Landsea said in a telephone interview. "When you look at all of the studies ... it's a pretty tiny sensitivity."

Landsea said hurricanes get about 2 percent stronger for every rise of 1 degree F (.55C) in the sea surface temperature.

"Consider that we can only estimate winds to the nearest 5 miles an hour here at the hurricane center and when you get to Category 4 or 5, you're really making a guess to the nearest 10 miles an hour," Landsea said. "A 1- or 2-mile an hour change is so tiny you can't even measure it."

Trenberth retorted “that global climate change was a big factor in driving the spike in sea surface warming in 2005, a hurricane season that broke records for its intensity.”

Tropical sea temperatures were up by 1.6 degrees F (.92 degree C) in 2005.

"The key thing about global warming is it doesn't go away," Trenberth said. "It provides a background level (of warming), and the natural fluctuations can be thought of as occurring on top of it."

The matter is not settled. Recent published studies in Nature said “hurricanes over the past 5,000 years appear to have been controlled more by El Nino and an African monsoon than warm local sea surface temperatures.”

The debate is far from over and will continue through the hurricane season it’s self. Hopefully these scientists will figure out if the rise in temperatures do have a significant impact on the intensity of a hurricane, or is it really just smoke and mirrors.

As Always, Keep it Green